The Brazil international has been nowhere near as decisive of late as in recent years, and Los Blancos are suffering as a result

"I'll do it 10x if I have to. They're not ready." Or so we were told. Vinicius Jr tweeted those words after Rodri won the Ballon d'Or in October following a laughable episode of melodrama. Real Madrid found out that their star man would not take home the Golden Ball and thus boycotted the ceremony in Paris. Should Vinicius have won it? Perhaps; it was close. But it wasn't a good look regardless of your position in the argument.

But while revenge was on the Brazilian's mind in the immediate aftermath, things have continued to not go his way in the months that have followed. Vincius is having a bad season – at least, by his lofty standards. Eleven goals and seven assists in La Liga aren't numbers that scream Ballon d'Or contender. And while 10 goal contributions in the Champions League about save his skin, this is not what "doing it 10x" looks like.

Even worse is his form since the start of 2025. Vinicius has scored only six goals and assisted five more in all competitions since the turn of the year. The revenge tour hasn't failed; it just never really started. The Vinicius that was promised is yet to arrive, and what happens next could make or break Madrid's season.

Getty ImagesFailing to walk the walk

The first thing that needs to be established is that it's probably pretty hard to be Vinicius. This is a footballer who has always been in the spotlight, mostly for things he cannot control. He was the subject of vitriolic abuse first from Madrid fans – who really didn't like him when he had the audacity to miss a few good chances as a teenager – and later from supporters of opposition clubs. A lot of it was the kind of sad racism that still exists in football, while the rest focused on the fact that Vinicius is really very good and clearly knows it. Some people just don't like that kind of arrogance from their sportsmen.

The difficulty with the latter is that it has to be backed up by performance and production. Talk the talk, and you simply have to walk the walk. And so far, Vinicius has stumbled. The numbers aren't really there, and that has then led to his swagger and confidence also going missing. That intangible quality that made defenders buckle at Vinicius is lacking, and he can now be got at, manipulated and shoved around a bit.

AdvertisementGettyDeclining numbers

And his decline has been reflected in the stats. Dive deeper into his goals since the turn of the year, and it's not just the fact that they're fewer and further between that is concerning – they've also been remarkably unimportant.

Two of the six came against a poor Red Bull Salzburg side who were already eliminated from the Champions League when the two teams met, while another came in a dramatic loss to Valencia. Only one, Madrid's second in a 2-1 win over Rayo Vallecano, nominally goes down as a 'winning' goal – and even that doubled a 1-0 lead at the time.

In that same period, Vinicius has missed two crucial penalties. The first came in the 70th minute of the second leg of Los Blancos' last-16 Champions League tie with Atletico Madrid while he followed that up by having a pretty tame effort saved against Valencia on April 5. In total, Vinicius has now missed three spot-kicks this season.

The deeper numbers behind his attacking production paint a picture of a player being afforded fewer opportunities – and doing slightly less with the ones he gets. Last season Vinicius averaged 3.72 shots per 90 minutes; this campaign, it's down to 3.26. Last season, he averaged 1.83 shots on target per 90 minutes; now it's down to 1.01. Last season, he overperformed his expected goals by 1.9; this year, it's 1.4.

Yet there are some signs that not all is lost. Vinicius' numbers on successful take-ons are up from 37 percent to 43%. He is being tackled fewer times, too. His numbers are more comparable with those of the 2021-22 season – his breakout campaign in Madrid. That season he was immensely impactful, and formed a deadly duo with Karim Benzema – a partnership that Los Blancos rode all the way to a Champions League win. Except back then, Vinicius outperformed his expected goals by 4.7.

Maybe, then, this is who Vinicius really is: a world-class talent whose numbers – and confidence – are taking a hit from elsewhere.

Getty ImagesThe Mbappe conundrum

And who be responsible for all of this? It didn't take a footballing genius to point out that getting Vinicius and Kylian Mbappe into the same team might prove to be a tactical nightmare. They are both most comfortable playing off the left of a front three and are at their best when they have the ball. But while Vinicius has faltered this calendar year, Mbappe has really started to find form in a Madrid shirt. In 25 games, he has found the net 19 times (though, rather amusingly, has just one assist in that time).

Mbappe is showing up in big games, too. He was dominant against Manchester City in the Champions League in February, and scored the equaliser in a crucial derby draw with Atletico in La Liga. Since then, he has chugged along, providing goals here and there while looking more and more like the player who set Paris Saint-Germain's all-time goal-scoring record at the age of 25.

Of course, there are still some issues for Mbappe to resolve. He probably shouldn't go around trying to break people's legs – not least four matches before a Clasico that could define the title race. It would be ideal, too, if he decided to defend every now and then. But Mbappe has never been perfect, and Madrid agreed to take the world-class with the frustrating all the same. Vinicius, it seems, is paying the price.

Getty Images'Don't talk, play'

There is an easy argument to be made here that things might just be different if Carlo Ancelotti was a true tactician. Perhaps a progressive, more thoughtful and attuned manager like, say, Xabi Alonso, wouldn't let this happen.

If Madrid wanted tactical absolutes, they would have let Ancelotti go long ago. So much of the Italian's success is based on vibes and control. The Italian has his tactics and ways of playing, but he is more of a perfect PR man, the manager who can take a bunch of world-class pieces and fit them all together. Ninety percent of his job is about media management and perception. Ancelotti needs to say the right things, and control the noise around his players.

"It's hard to say," Ancelotti told a press conference when asked about the form of Vinicius and his Brazil team-mate Rodrygo. "In the last week above all, there's been a general slump, not just in the efficiency we've had in attack. We've conceded too many goals in these recent games, and that's where we need to cut back. Defensive solidity is very important, especially in moments when the forwards aren't as effective as they've always been."

There have, however, been glimmers of discontent growing between Vinicius and his manager. A recent episode in a Copa Del Rey clash with Real Sociedad rather summed it all up. Vinicius was being fouled a lot an complained to Ancelotti. The manager told him, in no uncertain terms to "stop talking and play." Vinicius continued to complain, and Ancelotti reacted by telling Brahim Diaz to warm up. Vinicius miraculously got his head down from there.

These are isolated incidents, but ones that perhaps speak to larger discontent.